This market will resolve YES if, by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, any artificial intelligence system satisfies at least one of the following conditions:

1. The AI system publicly achieves a score of 90% or greater on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE) under the benchmark’s official evaluation methodology, with results publicly disclosed by the benchmark organizers or the system developer and widely recognized by major AI researchers; OR

2. The AI system is formally declared to be “Artificial General Intelligence” by both:

   • the developer of the system; and

   • at least one of the following organizations: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, or METR,

3. with the declaration made in a public report, research paper, or official statement.

Otherwise, this market will resolve NO.

Clarifications

• Internal, unreleased, or non-public test results will not count.

• Claims made solely on social media without supporting evidence will not count.

• Subsequent disputes regarding the meaning of AGI will not affect resolution if the above criteria have been met.

• If multiple qualifying systems exist, the first qualifying system will determine resolution.

• Results announced after December 31, 2026 will not count, even if the achievement allegedly occurred earlier.