Market Description: This market will resolve to “Yes” if by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, any government authority, recognized scientific institution, or official body publicly discloses credible evidence that extraterrestrial life or technology exists. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No.”

The primary resolution source will be official statements from governments (e.g., the United States, United Kingdom, or other major nations) and recognized scientific institutions. A consensus of credible reporting from international media will also be considered in determining resolution. Rumors, speculative claims, or unverified leaks will not count as evidence.

Why this market exists: Recent developments have kept the UFO/UAP debate alive. In late 2024, the Pentagon’s All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) reported 757 new UAP cases, most explained as balloons, drones, or birds, with no proof of extraterrestrial origin. In 2025, members of the U.S. Congress, such as Rep. Tim Burchett, introduced the UAP Transparency Act and pushed for hearings demanding greater disclosure. Even outside the U.S., institutions like the Bank of England have raised concerns about the potential financial impact of an alien disclosure, underscoring how disruptive such an event could be.

Sources:

1. Pentagon AARO official site

2. CNN – Pentagon received hundreds of new UFO sightings

3. NBC News – Pentagon received hundreds of new UAP reports, no evidence of extraterrestrial activity

4. Congress.gov – H.R.1187 UAP Transparency Act

5. DefenseScoop – UAP disclosure hearings