This market will resolve YES if, at any point between January 1, 2025 and December 31, 2025 (11:59 PM PST), the United States government conducts an intentional bombing or missile strike targeting Iranian territory, resulting in at least one explosion on Iranian soil.

The market will resolve NO if no such action occurs during this period.

Clarifications:

• The strike must originate from the United States or be carried out directly by U.S. military assets (e.g., aircraft, drones, ships, submarines, or land-based platforms).

• A single bomb or missile strike is sufficient for a YES resolution — scale or casualties do not affect the outcome.

• The action must be publicly acknowledged or attributed to the U.S. government by:

  • Official U.S. government statements (e.g., DoD, White House), or

  • Credible reporting from at least two major media outlets such as Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, Al Jazeera, CNN, or New York Times.

• Covert or unacknowledged strikes will not count unless confirmed through the above sources.

• Proxy or allied actions (e.g., Israeli airstrikes using U.S.-made weapons) will not count unless the U.S. takes direct credit or operational responsibility.

Examples:

• ✅ YES: A U.S. drone strike on an IRGC facility inside Iran, acknowledged by the Pentagon.

• ❌ NO: An Israeli airstrike in Iran using U.S.-supplied bombs, with no U.S. operational involvement.

• ❌ NO: Cyberattacks, sanctions, or other non-kinetic military actions.