This market resolves to the earliest listed outcome for which BIP-360 is activated on Bitcoin mainnet.

Activated is defined as the point at which BIP-360 consensus rules are enforced on the Bitcoin mainnet (BTC) such that blocks or transactions violating those rules would be rejected by the network.

Activation must occur via a consensus change (e.g., soft fork or hard fork) and be implemented and enforced by widely used Bitcoin node software.

The activation time (based on block height or median time past) determines the outcome. The market resolves to the first deadline that occurs after activation.

Non-Qualifying Conditions
This market resolves to "After December 31, 2029, 11:59PM ET (Not Activated)" if BIP-360 is not activated on Bitcoin mainnet by that time.

The following do not qualify as activation:
- Proposal, draft, or discussion status
- Code merged but not activated
- Activation on testnet, signet, or non-Bitcoin networks
- Partial or non-enforced implementations

Dispute Resolution
In case of ambiguity, resolution will be based on credible public evidence, including widely adopted node implementations, observable mainnet enforcement, and recognition by a majority of economic nodes and hash rate as part of the canonical Bitcoin network.