Resolves Yes if a new hard fork activates on Bitcoin before 2026-12-31 23:59:59 UTC, creating a permanent chain split (incompatible blocks produced) with a distinct forked cryptocurrency listed on CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap (separate ticker, not BTC, market cap >$100k). Detectable via blockchain explorers, showing divergence with sustained hashrate on fork chain. No if no such split or only soft forks/failed forks without listing. Ambiguities (e.g., testnets, minor divergences) resolve No.