This market will resolve to “Yes” if the People’s Republic of China (PRC) initiates a military offensive intended to establish control over any territory administered by the Republic of China (Taiwan) at any time on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

For the purposes of this market, qualifying territory includes Taiwan proper and any inhabited islands under the administration of the Republic of China. Uninhabited islands do not qualify.

A qualifying military offensive includes, but is not limited to, amphibious landings, sustained kinetic attacks, blockades accompanied by force, or other coordinated military actions clearly aimed at territorial control. Military exercises, drills, or demonstrations of force without an attempt to establish control do not qualify.

The primary resolution sources will be official confirmation from China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council. If official confirmation is unavailable or delayed, a clear consensus of credible international reporting will be used for resolution.