This market resolves based on whether Sam Bankman-Fried receives executive clemency from President Donald Trump during Trump's current presidential term, scheduled to end at 12:00 PM ET on January 20, 2029.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if, at any time between market creation and 12:00 PM ET on January 20, 2029, Sam Bankman-Fried receives any presidential executive clemency from President Donald Trump that materially reduces or eliminates his criminal punishment, including:

• A full presidential pardon.

• A commutation of sentence.

• A reprieve.

• Any other executive clemency that results in his release from prison or substantially reduces his federal criminal penalties.

This market will resolve NO if no qualifying executive clemency is granted by 12:00 PM ET on January 20, 2029.

For the avoidance of doubt:

• A pending pardon application, clemency petition, lobbying effort, or public discussion of a pardon will not qualify.

• Judicial actions, appeals, retrials, sentence reductions ordered by a court, or other non-presidential actions will not qualify.

• Clemency granted by any future president after the conclusion of Trump's current term will not qualify.

• If Sam Bankman-Fried receives a qualifying pardon or other executive clemency before the resolution date, this market will immediately resolve YES.

The primary resolution source will be official announcements from the White House, the Office of the Pardon Attorney, or the President of the United States. Credible reporting may be used to clarify timing and scope.