This market resolves YES if Iran formally appoints or recognizes a new Supreme Leader before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM CT.

A qualifying transition must involve a new individual officially assuming the position of Supreme Leader of Iran, as confirmed by Iranian state authorities.

This market resolves NO if no qualifying leadership transition occurs before the deadline.

The death, resignation, or removal of an incumbent Supreme Leader does not independently qualify unless a successor is officially appointed before the deadline.

Temporary leadership councils, acting officials, and interim arrangements do not qualify unless an individual is formally designated as Iran's new Supreme Leader.

Resolution sources: Official Iranian government announcements, corroborated by Reuters or the Associated Press.