Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to YES if official voter turnout in the first round of Nigeria’s 2027 (or next) Presidential Election is strictly above 30.00% (30.01% or higher), according to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

It resolves to NO if turnout is 30.00% or lower.

• First Round Only: If a runoff is required, only turnout from the initial presidential election round counts.

• Final Resolution: INEC's official declaration of results determines the outcome. Subsequent election tribunal or court rulings will not change the market resolution.

• Cancellation/Postponement: If the election is cancelled or postponed, this market will remain open until the presidential election is eventually held and a clear official voter turnout figure is available. Resolution will be based on the first round of the election actually held.

• Primary Resolution Source: Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC)

• Secondary Resolution Source: If INEC does not publish an official turnout figure or sufficient data to determine turnout, the market may be resolved using consistent and matching turnout figures reported by multiple reputable and independent media organizations. Such reports must refer to the same first-round presidential election and use total registered voters as the denominator.