Resolution Criteria – Nigeria Presidential Election 2027: Who Will Become President?

Primary Resolution Rule

This market resolves to the individual who is officially sworn in as President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria following the 2027 presidential election.

The market will resolve based on the person who actually assumes the office of President, rather than solely on preliminary results, opinion polls, projections, or an initial declaration of victory.

Candidate Outcomes

• Bola Ahmed Tinubu (APC): Resolves YES if Bola Ahmed Tinubu is officially sworn in as President following the 2027 electoral process.

• Atiku Abubakar (PDP/ADC): Resolves YES if Atiku Abubakar is officially sworn in as President.

• Peter Obi (NDC): Resolves YES if Peter Obi is officially sworn in as President.

• Seyi Makinde (APM): Resolves YES if Seyi Makinde is officially sworn in as President.

• Omoyele Sowore (AAC): Resolves YES if Omoyele Sowore is officially sworn in as President.

• Any Other Candidate: Resolves YES if an individual not specifically listed among the named candidates is officially sworn in as President. This includes Donald Duke and any other eligible presidential candidate.

Only one outcome can resolve YES.

Runoff Elections and Legal Challenges

• If a runoff or supplementary election is required under Nigerian electoral law, the market remains open until the final outcome is established.

• If the initially declared winner is disqualified, withdraws, or is replaced before assuming office, the market resolves to the individual who ultimately becomes President.

• A recount, court challenge, or disputed result alone will not trigger resolution.

• If a court or competent authority overturns the declared result and orders a fresh election, the market remains open until the new electoral process produces a President who is sworn into office.

Election Cancellation, Postponement or Annulment

• If the election is officially cancelled before voting takes place, the market will be voided.

• If the election is postponed, the market remains open until the rescheduled election takes place and a President is sworn in.

• If the election results are officially annulled and a fresh election is ordered, the market remains open.

• If no individual is officially sworn in as President within 12 months of the originally scheduled inauguration date, the market will be voided and all positions refunded.

Sources of Resolution

Resolution will be based primarily on official announcements from Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), official government records, relevant court judgments, and confirmation of the presidential inauguration by reliable news sources.

Final Condition

The decisive factor is the individual who actually assumes the office of President of Nigeria following the 2027 electoral cycle. Winning the popular vote or receiving an initial electoral declaration is not sufficient on its own.