Resolution Criteria: OpenAI Releases Open-Source Model Before July?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI publicly releases the weights of a reasoning model (e.g., o1, o3) or a large language model (LLM) that is at least as advanced as GPT-3 by June 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM PT. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The following models do not qualify for a “Yes” resolution: • Multimodal models (e.g., DALL·E, vision-language models) • Speech or audio-based models (e.g., Whisper) • Specialized AI agents or reinforcement learning models (e.g., robotics, AlphaCode-like systems) • Any model that does not meet the above LLM criteria

The primary resolution source will be official OpenAI announcements, GitHub repositories, research publications, or a consensus of credible media sources.