Outcomes:

• Impeached — The U.S. House of Representatives votes to impeach Pete Hegseth.

• Resigns or is fired — Hegseth voluntarily resigns or is formally removed from his position as U.S. Secretary of Defense.

• Neither — Hegseth remains Secretary of War through December 31, 2027, without being impeached.

Market deadline: December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM CT

Resolution rules

This market resolves based on which of the following events occurs first:

Impeached: The U.S. House of Representatives approves at least one article of impeachment against Pete Hegseth by a majority vote. Introducing articles of impeachment, holding hearings, or initiating an impeachment inquiry does not qualify. Senate conviction is not required.

Resigns or is fired: Hegseth formally resigns from his position as Secretary of Defense or is dismissed by the President. The effective date of his departure determines when this outcome occurs.

Neither: Hegseth remains Secretary of War through December 31, 2027, without being impeached.

Important clarification: If impeachment and resignation/removal occur on the same calendar day, the outcome will be determined by the official timestamps of each event. For impeachment, the relevant time is when the House vote approving an article of impeachment is completed. For resignation/removal, the relevant time is when Hegseth's departure officially takes effect. If the order cannot be reliably established, the market will resolve 50/50 between the two outcomes.

Resolution will be determined using official congressional records, White House announcements, Department of Defense statements, and credible news reporting.

If neither event occurs before the deadline, the market resolves to Neither.