This market resolves YES if Russia and Ukraine formally agree to a nationwide ceasefire by December 31, 2026 11:59PM CT.

The agreement must be publicly acknowledged by both governments and explicitly establish a cessation of hostilities between Russian and Ukrainian armed forces.

A ceasefire qualifies regardless of whether it is temporary or permanent, and regardless of whether it is subsequently violated.

This market resolves NO if no qualifying agreement is reached before the deadline.

Unilateral ceasefire declarations, localized ceasefires, humanitarian pauses, informal proposals, and agreements limited to specific regions or military operations do not qualify.

Resolution sources: Official statements from the Russian and Ukrainian governments, corroborated by reporting from Reuters or the Associated Press.