This market resolves YES if at least one top-five Bitcoin mining pool mines at least one canonical mainnet block signaling support for BIP-110 before August 1, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC. To qualify, the block must have a block header timestamp prior to the deadline and be verified as broadcast before that time. The block must belong to the active, canonical Bitcoin main chain; orphaned or stale blocks do not count.

Signals BIP-110 means the block sets the BIP 9 version bit using deployment name reduced_data and signaling bit 4.

A top-five pool means any pool ranked in the top five by share of mainnet blocks mined over the most recently completed 2,016-block difficulty adjustment period ending before the signaling block is mined. Future ranking changes do not invalidate eligibility. Data source conflicts will be resolved using Mempool.space as the primary source, followed by BTC.com and Hashrate Index. Examples like Foundry USA, AntPool, F2Pool, ViaBTC, or MARA Pool are illustrative only; eligibility depends strictly on the 2,016-block window.

A single valid block triggers a YES resolution. Continuous signaling, public announcements, or reaching activation thresholds are not required. Blocks with falsified pool data or copycat coinbase strings do not count if the pool disavows the block or trackers correct the attribution within 48 hours of broadcast. Unidentified miner blocks do not count unless credibly attributed to a top-five pool within 72 hours post-deadline. Stated intent or software releases do not count without a verified on-chain block.

This market resolves NO if no qualifying block is verified by August 4, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC. No subsequent retroactive data corrections will alter the resolution after this 72-hour post-deadline cutoff.