YES only if the U.S. federal government officially designates and holds Bitcoin as a national/strategic reserve asset (not custody, seizures, ETFs, pilots, or IOUs) by Dec 31, 2026; otherwise NO.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM PT, the United States federal government is confirmed to intentionally and officially hold Bitcoin as part of a designated national, strategic, or treasury reserve policy.

To qualify for a “Yes” resolution, all of the following must be true:

1. Bitcoin must be explicitly designated as a reserve or strategic asset by the U.S. government

2. The holding must be intentional and policy-driven, not incidental or operational

3. The Bitcoin must be owned for reserve purposes, not merely controlled, custodied, or observed on-chain

Explicit Exclusions (Do NOT count)

• Technical custody only (including multisig participation, key escrow, observation, monitoring, or signing authority without ownership)

• Bitcoin held by third-party custodians on behalf of the U.S. government without an explicit reserve designation

• Bitcoin held via derivatives, ETFs, trusts, claims, IOUs, wrapped assets, or synthetic exposure

• Bitcoin held temporarily for settlement, clearing, liquidity, experimentation, pilot programs, research, or testing

• Bitcoin confiscated, seized, forfeited, or obtained through law enforcement actions

• Bitcoin held for auction, liquidation, safekeeping, or disposal

• Bitcoin held by state or local governments

The market will resolve to “No” if no qualifying reserve-designated Bitcoin holdings are confirmed by the resolution date.

Resolution Sources

• Official publications, disclosures, or statements from the U.S. government, U.S. Treasury, or Federal Reserve

• In the absence of clear official documentation, a consensus of credible reporting explicitly confirming reserve designation may be used