The U.S. government is considering a major overhaul of the patent fee model. According to The Wall Street Journal, Commerce Department officials are weighing a plan that would charge patent holders 1% to 5% of a patent’s overall value annually—departing from the traditional fixed-fee system in place for over 235 years. If implemented, this change could massively increase costs for companies like IBM, Apple, and Samsung, which hold thousands of high-value patents across AI, semiconductors, and biotech.

Resolution Criteria:

This market will resolve “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, the U.S. federal government enacts a law or regulation that introduces a variable annual fee based on a patent’s value (e.g., a percentage of assessed or declared value) instead of—or in addition to—the traditional fixed-fee structure.

The new pricing model must be active and enforceable (not just proposed) before the resolution date.

This market will resolve “No” if no such change is enacted and in effect by the deadline, even if it is under discussion or proposed in draft form.

Primary Resolution Sources:

• Official rule or law published on federalregister.gov

• U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) official fee schedule

• Commerce Department announcements

• Credible reporting from sources such as the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, or Reuters confirming implementation