This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States conducts at least one air-delivered strike on Mexican land territory between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying strike is defined as the use of missiles, drones (including FPV or ATGM), or aerial bombs launched by U.S. military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives that physically impact ground territory within Mexico.

Included territory:

All terrestrial territory of Mexico, including rivers, lakes, and ports.

Excluded: Territorial sea.

Excluded actions (do NOT qualify):

• Intercepted missiles or drones

• Surface-to-air missile activity

• Artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions

• Naval shelling

• Cyber operations

A strike will qualify if it is announced or credibly reported, including claims made by the U.S. government or the U.S. President during the market timeframe.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

If the date or occurrence of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second day after the resolution time, the market will resolve to “No,” even if a strike is later confirmed.