This market resolves to YES if, following the activation or attempted activation of BIP-110 on Bitcoin mainnet, there exists a Bitcoin-descended chain split that satisfies all of the following objective conditions:

1. Divergence: Two incompatible chains must diverge from a common Bitcoin mainnet ancestor block, referred to as the "split point."

2. BIP-110 Causation: The divergence must be a direct result of a consensus disagreement regarding BIP-110. This includes, but is not limited to, one chain enforcing a BIP-110 rule that the other chain rejects, or one chain rejecting a block that the other chain accepts due to BIP-110 activation, enforcement, rejection, or non-enforcement parameters. Unrelated software bugs, isolated miner misconfigurations, unrelated consensus failures, or independent network partitions do not qualify.

3. Duration: 24-Hour Rule: Both chains must be actively and independently extended for a continuous period of more than 24 hours. The 24-hour clock begins at the real-world UTC time when the first post-split block is mined on either side of the divergent fork and accepted as valid by nodes following that chain's relevant consensus rules. Real-world UTC observation time, based on the best available public evidence, will be used to determine duration. Block header timestamps will not be used to calculate this 24-hour duration.

4. Depth: 10-Block Rule: Each of the two incompatible chains must contain at least 10 valid blocks mined after the split point. For purposes of this rule, a post-split block counts for a chain only if it is accepted as valid by nodes following that chain's relevant consensus rules.

This market resolves to NO if no such chain split occurs before the Resolution Date, if any fork or divergence resolves via reorg or abandonment in 24 hours or less, if either side fails to reach 10 post-split blocks, or if the divergence is caused by factors entirely unrelated to BIP-110 consensus rules.

Exclusions and Clarifications:

• Temporary stale blocks, ordinary orphan blocks, short reorgs, accidental invalid blocks due to isolated miner misconfigurations, or network forks occurring strictly on testnet, signet, or regtest do not qualify.

• For the avoidance of doubt, this market does not require both chains to have equal economic value, exchange listings, wallet support, ticker symbols, or broad social recognition. A minority chain counts if it is publicly observable, Bitcoin-descended, independently extended, mutually incompatible with the majority chain, and meets the 24-hour and 10-block thresholds.

• If a dispute arises over which chain inherits the name "Bitcoin" or the "BTC" ticker, that dispute is irrelevant to this market. The market is concerned strictly with the publicly verifiable existence of two surviving, incompatible, Bitcoin-descended chains.

Data Sources and Dispute Resolution: Resolution will be determined by the market administrator using data from major, independent Bitcoin block explorers, public node operators, and credible chain-monitoring or research sources. Relevant sources may include, but are not limited to, Mempool.space, Blockstream.info, CoinMetrics, BitMEX Research, public full-node observations, mining pool statements, client release notes, and widely recognized Bitcoin technical reporting. If these sources provide conflicting data regarding the timing, validity, or persistence of the chains, the default resolution is NO unless there is clear, publicly verifiable evidence that both chains independently met the 24-hour and 10-block thresholds.