Description / resolution rules

This market resolves to Yes if the Bitcoin chain with the greatest cumulative proof-of-work enforces BIP-110 consensus rules from the BIP-110 activation height, currently specified as block 965,664, and remains compliant through at least block 965,728.

Block 965,728 is currently expected to occur on September 6, 2026, but the date is only an estimate. If block timing differs, resolution is based on the relevant block heights, not the calendar date.

“Compliant with BIP-110” means the heaviest Bitcoin chain contains no blocks that violate BIP-110 rules from block 965,664 onward, including the 34-byte ScriptPubKey limit and the 83-byte OP_RETURN limit.

This market resolves to No if, by block 965,728, the chain with greatest cumulative proof-of-work includes one or more BIP-110-violating blocks from block 965,664 onward, or if BIP-110 is not enforced by that chain.

Resolution sources: public Bitcoin block explorers, chainwork data, and the Bitcoin BIPs repository / BIP-110 specification.