Will BIP 448 activate on Bitcoin by the end of 2027?

Will BIP 448 activate on Bitcoin by the end of 2027?

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Dec 31, 2027
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This market resolves YES if the consensus changes specified by BIP 448 become active and enforceable under Bitcoin mainnet consensus rules at any block with a timestamp on or before December 31, 2027, 11:59:59 PM UTC.

The market resolves NO if BIP 448 has not activated by that deadline.

Activation counts regardless of the eventual deployment mechanism (e.g. BIP 8, BIP 9, flag day, or another mechanism) and regardless of whether BIP 448 is activated independently or as part of a larger soft-fork deployment.

Important: Mere inclusion in Bitcoin Core, miner signaling, reaching a signaling threshold, lock-in, release of activation-capable software, or adoption by individual miners/nodes does not count as activation. The new consensus rules must actually have entered the ACTIVE state/become enforceable on Bitcoin mainnet.

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Jan 1, 2028, 05:59 UTC
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