This market resolves YES if, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC, a publicly released Bitcoin hard-fork implementation launches a live blockchain that:

• Changes Bitcoin’s proof-of-work/mining algorithm such that existing Bitcoin SHA-256 ASIC miners cannot mine the new chain without modification; and

• Implements the consensus-rule changes introduced by BIP-110, or consensus rules that are substantively equivalent; and

• Forks from Bitcoin’s existing blockchain history/UTXO set, such that BTC holders at the fork point are entitled to corresponding coins on the new chain; and

• Successfully mines at least 100 blocks under the new consensus and proof-of-work rules.

The market resolves NO if no blockchain meeting all of these conditions launches by the deadline.

Proposals, announcements, BIPs, repositories, testnets, or software releases without a qualifying live mainnet launch do not count.

A BIP-110 chain that retains Bitcoin’s existing SHA-256 proof-of-work algorithm does not qualify. Likewise, a Bitcoin hard fork that changes the mining algorithm but does not incorporate BIP-110’s consensus changes (or substantively equivalent rules) does not qualify.