Description: BIP-110 mandatory signaling begins at block 961,632 (~Aug 10, 2026). If a persistent chain split results, this market prices the native asset of the Knots-followed chain against BTC. Resolves YES if the fork coin's 10-day TWAP ≥ 3.00% of BTC into settlement December 31, 2026. Asset identity persists through any subsequent consensus change in the Knots lineage, including proof-of-work. No split, no listing, or no tradeable price resolves NO. Never void.

Fork coin: the native asset of the chain diverging from another persistent Bitcoin chain at height ≥ 961,632, sharing history through the divergence block, and valid per the latest tagged Bitcoin Knots release or its repository-designated successor. Post-divergence consensus changes (PoW, difficulty, checkpoints, other) do not create a new asset if pre-divergence history is preserved and the change ships in the Knots lineage.

BTC: the asset holding the BTC ticker on qualifying venues at settlement; venue disagreement resolved by volume-weighted majority; absent venue distinction, the majority-work double-SHA-256 chain at divergence.

Price: TWAP of the fork coin/BTC ratio, December 22–31, 2026, 23:59 UTC. Qualifying venue: public order book or published trade history, ≥ 7 consecutive days trading the coin or a futures/IOU/split-token proxy. Multiple venues: volume-weighted. Partial window: available days apply. Pre-window delisting: last 10 available days apply.

YES: TWAP ≥ 3.00% (boundary inclusive), or fork coin and BTC are the same asset at settlement (venues assign the BTC ticker to the Knots chain; ratio = 100%).

NO: all other states, including: no enforcement and no divergence; enforcing nodes stall without hashrate; activation on an undivided chain (persistent split = both chains extend ≥ 144 blocks past divergence); split without qualifying listing; consensus changes shipped or proposed without a tradeable market forming; chain halt ≥ 30 consecutive days without listing; TWAP < 3.00%. Absence of a tradeable market is a value of zero.

Edge cases: naming disputes irrelevant; definitions control. Deleted repositories: archive.org snapshot governs. Renames and redenominations: no effect.

Resolution sources: Bitcoin Knots repository and release notes, successor repositories, exchange APIs and trade histories, CoinGecko, CoinMarketCap, block explorers, archive.org.