Resolves Yes if the United States federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026. Outcome verified from the Office of Management and Budget and the United States Office of Personnel Management.

A shutdown is defined as the government's orderly suspension of agency work that is not legally excepted, typically accompanied by furloughing the employees who perform that work, when funding is unavailable.

Examples that would resolve the market to Yes:

• OMB releases a formal directive that orders heads of the affected agencies to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown," which is in effect as of 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026

• OPM posts a current operating status that indicates that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency"

Examples that would NOT resolve the market to Yes:

• A technical lapse in appropriations occurs, but OMB directs agencies to continue standard operations

• Government closures or operating status changes resulting from Federal holidays, inclement weather, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations

Clarifications

• A shutdown counts regardless of duration, including same-day or overnight shutdowns.

• Partial shutdowns qualify as shutdowns