Definition of Activation

Amendment due to logic:

Check for violations after 64 blocks after the activation block, which is 965664. That block is currently expected some time on September 2nd or 3rd, but this can and probably will drift (it used to be expected on September 1, hence the bug in the logic)

This market resolves to “Yes” if, at ~~11:59:59 PM PT on September 1, 2026 (06:59:59 UTC on September 2, 2026)~~, the Bitcoin blockchain with the greatest cumulative proof-of-work is fully compliant with BIP-110 consensus rules.

“Compliant with BIP-110” means that, at the snapshot time:

The heaviest proof-of-work chain contains no blocks that violate BIP-110 constraints from the BIP-110 activation point onward, including (but not limited to):
- The 34-byte ScriptPubKey limit
- The 83-byte OP_RETURN limit

Failure Condition

This market resolves to “No” if, at ~~11:59:59 PM PT on September 1, 2026 (06:59:59 UTC on September 2, 2026)~~, (Please see above amendment due block time drift) the Bitcoin chain with the greatest cumulative proof-of-work:

Includes one or more blocks that violate BIP-110 rules.

Exclusions

No consideration is given to:

Earlier temporary forks or violations
Whether BIP-110-enforcing nodes are following a different chain
Miner intent, signaling behavior, or future scheduled enforcement

Only the state of the heaviest chain at the deadline is relevant.

Chain Selection Rule

“Bitcoin” is defined strictly as the chain with the most cumulative proof-of-work at the deadline.
Software versions, exchange listings, ticker symbols, or economic signaling are irrelevant to resolution.

Lock-In and Signaling

Signaling or lock-in without actual enforcement by the heaviest chain at the deadline results in a “No” resolution.

Implementation Failure

If BIP-110 is not enforced by the heaviest chain at the deadline due to:

Software bugs
Partial or incomplete deployment
Miner non-adoption

the market resolves to “No.”

Temporary Nature of BIP-110

Because BIP-110 is a temporary soft fork, a “Yes” outcome requires only that the heaviest chain enforces BIP-110 at the deadline. Continued enforcement after the deadline is not required.

Verification Sources

Resolution will be determined using:

Public Bitcoin block explorers to identify the heaviest chain and inspect block contents
Chainwork data to confirm cumulative proof-of-work
The Bitcoin BIPs GitHub repository as the authoritative source for BIP-110 rules

Detailed Market Title

Will BIP-110 (Reduced Data) be consensus-enforced on the Bitcoin mainnet by the chain with the greatest cumulative proof-of-work by September 1 - 7, 2026 (64 blocks after block 965664)?

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