This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any time between January 1, 2025 and December 31, 2025 (11:59 PM PT), the following two conditions are met:

1. A new political party is formally registered with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) in the United States during the 2025 calendar year.

2. Elon Musk is publicly and credibly identified as the founder, co-founder, or principal organizer of the party — either through his own statements (including posts on X), or via attribution in at least two credible mainstream media sources (e.g., Reuters, Bloomberg, New York Times, CNN, Fox News).

The market will resolve to "No" if:

• No qualifying party is registered with the FEC during 2025, or

• Elon Musk’s involvement as founder is not credibly established by the above criteria by the deadline.

Exclusions:

• Endorsing or supporting an existing political party does not qualify.

• PACs, advocacy groups, or unregistered movements do not qualify.

• Speculative media reports or tweets without formal FEC registration do not qualify.

Primary Sources of Truth:

• FEC political party registration database (fec.gov)

• Public statements from Elon Musk (e.g., @elonmusk on X)

• Reports from at least two credible media outlets