This market resolves based on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement for its January 2026 meeting, specifically the change in the target range for the federal funds rate compared to the target range set at the prior FOMC meeting (expected December 2025).

The resolution source is the official FOMC statement published on the Federal Reserve's website, or the equivalent press release.

If the target range decreases by 50 basis points (bps) or more, "50+ bps decrease" resolves YES, and all other outcomes resolve NO.

If the target range decreases by exactly 25 bps, "25 bps decrease" resolves YES, and all other outcomes resolve NO.

If the target range is unchanged, "No change" resolves YES, and all other outcomes resolve NO.

If the target range increases by 25 bps or more, "25+ bps increase" resolves YES, and all other outcomes resolve NO.

The market resolves immediately after the official announcement, no later than January 30, 2026. If the announcement is delayed beyond market close but before resolution, it will use that announcement. If no announcement occurs due to extraordinary circumstances, the market resolves NO on all outcomes.