This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any point between January 1, 2025 and December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM PT, Ali Khamenei ceases to hold the position of Supreme Leader of Iran.

This includes, but is not limited to:

• Death

• Formal resignation

• Official removal by the Assembly of Experts

• Deposition, exile, or incapacitation that results in a new Supreme Leader being appointed or assuming de facto authority

The market will resolve to “No” if Khamenei remains the recognized Supreme Leader through the end of 2025.

Clarifications:

• Temporary absence (e.g., medical leave or rumors of death) does not qualify unless there is official confirmationthat he is no longer Supreme Leader.

• If a successor is named and assumes power, either officially or through widely confirmed reporting, the market resolves “Yes.”

• In the absence of official government confirmation, the market may also resolve based on widespread consensus in credible international media (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP, NYT).