This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any point between January 1, 2025 and December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM PT, Ali Khamenei ceases to hold the position of Supreme Leader of Iran.

This includes, but is not limited to:

Death
Formal resignation
Official removal by the Assembly of Experts
Deposition, exile, or incapacitation that results in a new Supreme Leader being appointed or assuming de facto authority

The market will resolve to “No” if Khamenei remains the recognized Supreme Leader through the end of 2025.

Clarifications:

Temporary absence (e.g., medical leave or rumors of death) does not qualify unless there is official confirmationthat he is no longer Supreme Leader.
If a successor is named and assumes power, either officially or through widely confirmed reporting, the market resolves “Yes.”
In the absence of official government confirmation, the market may also resolve based on widespread consensus in credible international media (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP, NYT).

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