Resolution Rules

This market resolves YES if the regular armed forces of any member state of the League of Arab States launch a military strike causing physical damage against the territory, military assets, or government facilities of Iran before April 13, 2026 (23:59 UTC).

A qualifying military strike is a deliberate kinetic attack using weapons such as:

• missiles

• drones

• aircraft

• artillery

• naval weapons

• ground forces

The strike must be conducted by the regular armed forces of an Arab League member state.

Member states of the Arab League include:

Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, Yemen, and the State of Palestine.

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Edge Cases and Exclusions

The following do NOT qualify for resolution:

• cyberattacks

• economic warfare or sanctions

• diplomatic actions

• sabotage without kinetic damage

• attacks conducted solely by proxy militias or non-state actors

Attacks on Iranian military forces, assets, or personnel outside the sovereign territory of Iran do not qualify.

Coalition strikes involving non-Arab countries (for example operations involving the United States or other allies) only qualify if the regular armed forces of an Arab League member state directly participate in the strike.

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Resolution Sources

Resolution will rely on credible reporting from major international news organizations, including:

• Reuters

• Associated Press

• BBC News

• Al Jazeera

• The New York Times

Official government or defense ministry statements from Arab League member states or from Iran may also be used when available.

If credible reporting confirms that a qualifying military strike occurred before the deadline, the market resolves YES.

If no qualifying strike occurs before the deadline, the market resolves NO.

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Background (Context)

Regional tensions between Iran and several Arab states have increased in recent months. Governments in the Gulf region, including countries such as Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, have discussed potential responses to security threats and regional escalation.

This market tracks whether those tensions escalate into a direct military strike by an Arab League member state against Iran before the specified deadline

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