Resolves to YES if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average value for Transit Calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that is 60 or higher for any date from market creation through May 31, 2026 (11:59 PM PT).

Resolves to NO otherwise.

Details

The metric used is “Transit Calls (Arrivals of Ships)” — 7-day moving average
Eligible ship categories (as defined by IMF PortWatch): https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730
container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships
Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch are not considered

Resolution timing

Resolves immediately once a qualifying value (≥ 60) is published within the window
If no qualifying value appears:
- Resolves after data for May 31, 2026 is published
If data for May 31 is not published within 14 calendar days after May 31, 2026 (ET):
- Resolves based on the latest available data at that time

Data source

Resolution source: IMF PortWatch — Strait of Hormuz transit calls data
Includes both:
- Chart values
- Downloadable datasets

Revisions policy

Revisions before publication of May 31 data → considered
A value that was published ≥ 60 at any point still qualifies for YES even if later revised downward
Revisions after May 31 data is published → not considered

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