Markets 278 / 23 result
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US Patent System gets a price hike by 2026?
9.88%chance
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Iran Supreme Leader changes before 2027?
16.54%chance
1.43%
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Democrat James Talarico To Win Texas Senate Seat?
52.67%chance
3.59%
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China invades Taiwan in 2026?
2.64%chance
1.25%
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Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?
Gadi Eizenkot 1% 47.7%
Benjamin Netanyahu25.4%
Naftali Bennett17.4%
Itamar Ben Gvir9.5%
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Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by 11/6?
35.33%chance
7.61%
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Alien evidence disclosure by end of 2026?
4.90%chance
2.14%
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Russia pneumonic plague cases abroad in 2026?
7.00%chance
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US acquires part of Greenland in 2026?
3.47%chance
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Somaliland recognized by new country before 2028?
46.87%chance
3.15%
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US economic sanctions on Brazil before 2027
27.70%chance
31.54%
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Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire before 2027
15.99%chance
3.91%
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2027 French presidential election winner?
Marine La Pen 1% 27.3%
Édouard Philippe12.1%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon12.1%
Gabriel Attal12.1%
David Lisnard12.1%
Bruno Retailleau12.1%
Other12.1%
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US strikes Mexico in 2026?
7.31%chance
1.48%
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Will a final text explicitly mentioning “phasing out fossil fuels” be approved at COP31 (Nov 9–20, Antalya)?
58.13%chance
2.21%
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Will gold hit $6,000/oz in 2026?
2.70%chance
2.23%
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US/Russia tactical nuclear strike 2026?
2.08%chance
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2026 Atlantic Category 3+ Hurricanes?
Exactly 2 8% 47.6%
Exactly 0 or 1 9% 47.1%
Exactly 32.8%
Exactly 41.6%
5 or more0.8%
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Will Dr. Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2028?
13.05%chance
1.20%
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Donald Trump pardons Sam Bankman-Fried
3.90%chance
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Will Conor McGregor fight at The White House in a UFC event before the end of 2026?
3.39%chance
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Iran nuclear possession announcement by 2027?
9.62%chance
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Venezuela becomes 51st state of America in 2026?
1.76%chance
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