Markets 266 / 8 result

OpenAI

...

Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by June 30?

Chance 60.14%

2.68%

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AI

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Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

$1T – $1.14T

35%

Yes

No

Less than $1T

25%

Yes

No

$1.15 trillion – $1.5 trillion

21%

Yes

No

More than $1.5T

20%

Yes

No

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AI

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Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?

Anthropic

67%

3%

Yes

No

OpenAI

33%

3%

Yes

No

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AI

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Next U.S. state to pass a data center moratorium?

Michigan

18%

6%

Yes

No

Maryland

7%

Yes

No

Vermont

7%

Yes

No

Pennsylvania

7%

Yes

No

South Carolina

7%

Yes

No

Georgia

7%

Yes

No

Virginia

7%

Yes

No

Maine

7%

Yes

No

Minnesota

7%

Yes

No

New Hampshire

7%

Yes

No

South Dakota

7%

Yes

No

Oklahoma

7%

Yes

No

Wisconsin

7%

Yes

No

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AI

AGI achieved by 2027

Chance 48.79%

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AI

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Will the AI bubble burst in 2026?

Chance 17.18%

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AI

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Will an LLM defeat a chess super grandmaster by 2028?

Chance 84.13%

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AI

Will AI generate a full movie by early 2028?

Chance 82.79%

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