This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any point between January 1, 2025 and December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM Pacific Time (PT), active-duty U.S. military personnel are confirmed to have physically operated on the territory of Iran.

This includes:

• Any combat or non-combat deployment involving U.S. troops physically present on Iranian soil, even briefly

• Participation in raids, ground operations, seizures, or occupations conducted by the U.S. military

• Presence of U.S. special operations forces, marines, army units, or other personnel inside Iran, even if temporary

Confirmation must come from one or more of the following:

• Official statements from the U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. government, or Iranian government

• A consensus of credible reporting from major international outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, WSJ)

Exclusions (Does NOT qualify):

• Airstrikes, drone attacks, or missile strikes launched from outside Iran

• U.S. troops stationed in neighboring countries or conducting operations near the border

• Covert activity or unconfirmed reports without substantial corroboration

• Cyber operations, training of proxies, or diplomatic visits

Summary:

Only the physical presence of uniformed U.S. troops on Iranian soil—acknowledged publicly or credibly confirmed—will trigger a “Yes” resolution.