This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any time between July 1, 2025 and July 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM Pacific Time (PT), the United States conducts a military strike on Iranian territory.
To qualify, the event must involve:
Kinetic military action initiated by the U.S., such as an airstrike, missile strike, or drone strike
Occurring within Iran’s borders, including land, airspace, or territorial waters
Confirmation must come from at least one of the following:
Official statement from the U.S. Department of Defense, White House, or Iranian government
A consensus of credible international news reporting (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, WSJ), clearly attributing the attack to the United States
Does NOT qualify:
Strikes conducted by other nations (e.g., Israel) without confirmed U.S. operational involvement
Cyberattacks or electronic warfare
Strikes outside Iran (e.g., Syria, Iraq) even if they target Iranian assets
Covert activity or sabotage unless publicly and credibly attributed to the U.S.
Resolution Source:
The market will resolve based on official confirmation or a clear consensus of credible media reporting. If no qualifying U.S. strike occurs in Iran during July 2025, the market will resolve to “No.”
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